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Цена ремонта определяется по фотографии, при необходимости наш мастер-оценщик прибудет в. Актуальны ли такие сделки для кемеровского рынка сделку можно будет оспорить. 07/12/ · Q&A with Vasco Duarte on the #NoEstimates Book This item in chinese Like Print Bookmarks. Dec 07, 15 min read by. Ben Linders. The software industry Автор: Ben Linders. Аквамир - 3d Пополнить счёт в "Моём Мире" можно несколькими способами: 1) Мобильный. Is your child ready for a little extra responsibility? By enabling Kid Mode in the vívofit jr. app.

This item in chinese. Dec 07, 15 min read. Ben Linders. The software industry is not good in estimation. Vasco Duarte suggests that we should focus on impact and value instead of output to make projects successful. In the book NoEstimates: How to Measure Project Progress Without Estimating he explores how NoEstimates can help to manage projects with a focus on value and predictability, report progress quickly and often, and adapt plans constantly based on existing data.

InfoQ interviewed Vasco Duarte about how NoEstimates started; what the use of estimation techniques tries to solve; what makes estimation so difficult; how you can plan projects and track progress using NoEstimates; examples of how NoEstimates has helped to focus on the value and where people can find more information about NoEstimates. As part of that work I started tweeting under the hashtag estwaste, and at the same time Neil Killick and Woody Zuill started to tweet about similar topics.

The earliest recorded tweet with the NoEstimates was by Woody Zuill, and after that the conversation on Twitter took off. It was clear that people were interested in the topic. The original hashtag that I was tweeting under EstWaste for Estimation is Waste never really took off, but NoEstimates, a simple hashtag was able to start a much needed conversation in our industry.

From the still very active conversation on Twitter 3 years later! By now there are many people tweeting under the hashtag NoEstimates, and many conference talks on the topic. Your question is very important, because once we identify the questions, or problems we are trying to tackle we can then make an informed assessment if the tool estimation is the appropriate tool for us.

The problem with these answers is what is not said, the assumption behind the use of estimates as tool to answer these questions.

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The assumption is that estimates can be made reliable on a large scale across the whole IT industry , however that is not supported by the evidence we see. The much quoted CHAOS report continues to report, year after year how often projects are late and over budget.

I agree. On-time, on-budget record is a poor predictor of project success. Was the schedule important?

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  • Estimates are a poor predictor of project success. InfoQ: What is it that makes estimation so difficult? What are the reasons people estimate badly? But most of us know that it is. We suffer it every day at work. The stats from multiple surveys also backup that assertion that estimates are difficult.

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    Here is a small sample:. And we can find similar results in other surveys, from multiple sources. All these examples prove one thing: we, as an industry are not good at estimation.

    Sure, some people will claim they are super-forecasters, but the term already implies that the majority of the people are not. In the book I explain some of those dysfunctions such as: estimate bargaining, political games, etc.

    InfoQ: Does NoEstimates mean that you should never ever do any estimates? Are estimates evil?

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    Duarte : Yes and no. NoEstimates is a principled approach to solve a particular problem in our industry: to understand and be able to act on the cost and duration of a project one should use alternatives to estimates. In my own experience estimates are rarely needed, and even when needed they just point to another dysfunction that we should be tackling.

    In this context, eliminating estimates is indeed the goal. But just like Toyota has devised a multiple-level approach to waste unnecessary waste, and necessary waste , so must we for estimates.

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    Sometimes we must accept estimates, but endeavor to find ways to eliminate that need for estimates. InfoQ: Why do you emphasize selecting the most important work over prioritization based on estimates?

    Duarte : This is a very important question that might warrant a book on its own. Simply put, prioritization of a list of items pre-supposes that all items in the list will be needed. This is very often not the case. As we know many of the items of functionality we end up delivering to our customers are rarely or never used.

    Yet, these unnecessary items take time and effort to develop, and in some cases add considerably to the risks in our project. Prioritization assumes all items in a backlog are needed.

    Therefore I help my customers to understand their business model, and then deliberately explore options on how to leverage or amplify the success of that business model. This is why I prefer to talk about selection of the highest impact items and delivering those quickly, instead of what is the priority of item 34 vs 35 in a long list of requirements. Duarte : This is a great question, because it clearly exposes one of the most important fallacies in the NoEstimates debate.

    This is completely false, of course. For example, we can easily decide which stories to take into a sprint without sizing those stories. Many of the teams that I work with will take a number of stories into the sprint based on the goal for that sprint, without even sizing those stories. When they start executing those stories, they constantly re-evaluate their situation compared to the sprint goal, and will remove or add stories to the sprint to help them achieve the goal for that sprint.

    A goal could be something like: improve performance of X to transactions per second.

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  • The stories we take into the sprint are subject to that goal, not the other way around. The Sprint example above illustrates how you can separate estimation from planning at the sprint level. The same can be done at the project level. Many of the clients I work with have a business to keep running and have business goals they must achieve.

    Instead of committing to a specific set of Features or Stories to achieve those goals, they do continuous planning. We define the goals for the project at the start, and define how much we will invest in that project a budget, not an estimate , and then we continuously manage scope to deliver the goals we have within the constraints may be time, money or both we must adhere to. What this approach to planning fosters is a relentless focus on value and continuous value delivery that I explain further below.

    Duarte : In the book I go into a lot more detail on how we can track and make progress transparent to our stakeholders. Simply put, I count the number of items delivered, and compare that to the number of items in the backlog. A very common assumption that people make is that you need to know the complete list of items to be able to track progress this way.

    Scope creep or as I call it: value discovery is a natural process of any software development project. As we develop a project, we discover more value, and it is only natural that we want to deliver the newly discovered items as well. So, I never assume that scope is fixed, or the backlog is complete. Rather I project forecast the rate of delivery delivered items divided by the time it took to deliver into the future and assess what is the likely number of items we can deliver in the time we have available.

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    Inevitably, at some point the number of items remaining in the backlog will be larger than the items we can deliver based on our rate of delivery. At this point is when the most crucial conversations in our projects start: which items should we deliver? Which should we remove from the backlog? This process I call: continuous scope management, and in the book I call this the most important tool for software project management.

    Many will think that this is a difficult conversation, fraught with difficult expectation management. I agree, but these type of conversations are the ones that help us focus on value, and continuous delivery of value. Simply put, I use this approach to foster a conversation about value delivery, instead of measuring output compared to an inevitably fragile plan.

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    Following a plan result of our estimates is a fragile approach to software project management. If we are to be agile in our approach to software development we must build anti-fragile approaches to project management, and NoEstimates is one of those approaches. InfoQ: One of your claims is that NoEstimates helps teams and organizations to focus on what is valuable, but how does that work in practice?

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    Duarte : In the previous question I referred to the only tool that can really help us deliver a software project on time: continuous scope management. But it is important to explore why this continuous scope management is necessary. One of the key reasons is that we will know better what we need to deliver when we start developing the software. As we develop, demonstrate and get feedback new ideas about the right functionality, i. Following the original plans, which were estimated based on a defined set of functionality, leads us to treat this value discovery as scope creep and ignore its value.

    This leads to one of the dysfunctions in estimate-driven software development which is to prioritize the plan, and the schedule over the new value discovered. I take a different approach. I help teams work within a specified time and investment box, but at the same time constantly adjust the scope to deliver more value.

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  • For this we use the forecasting approach I describe in the NoEstimates book, so that we can safely change the scope of our projects to incrementally deliver more value, instead of trying to follow the original plan. The side-effect of this forecasting approach is that it brings continuous scope management to the early phase of the project, we end up managing scope from day one, thanks to the forecasting technique.

    The alternative would be to continuously re-estimate everything we come up with, and every little change in the plan.

    Duarte : There are many sources if you want to get started reading more about NoEstimates, Woody Zuill has collected a list of blogs from multiple authors in his website. And for those that are interested in an in depth look at how to apply the ideas in NoEstimates I wrote the NoEstimates book which is available digitally at the OikosofySeries website and will be available on Amazon soon.

    To know more about the book, including getting the first chapter for free, you can go to NoEstimatesBook. After registering you will get a link to download the first chapter of the book with the Table of Contents. When writing the book, I realized that I could not possibly write an entertaining, informative book and cover all the aspects of NoEstimates that I wanted to cover, so I partnered up with Tomas Rybing and Evan Leybourn who wrote two companion mini e-books to the NoEstimates book.

    Tomas wrote about capacity planning with NoEstimates, and Evan wrote about contracts and how they define our relationship with clients in ways that either support or make difficult the use of practices like NoEstimates.

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    But there is a lot more, I interview 9 people on video about NoEstimates. The book includes interviews with 4 NoEstimates practitioners. He tells us a story that is completely mind-blowing: how he turns a previously-lasting 18 month project into less than 2 weeks of work! I was completely surprised by that story, and believe it has critical insights for those interested in applying NoEstimates.